NEWTON COUNTY – The post-pandemic world is still feeling the long term impact on populations, with a projected 2.8 percent decrease in enrollment at Newton County schools expected by 2031, discussed by the Newton County Board of Education at their meeting last Tuesday. NCS enrollment initially declined from 19,579 in  October 2019 to 18,776 in October 2020. Since 2020, the numbers have remained stable, but have not risen to pre-COVID amounts. In September 2024, enrollment was at 18,680 students. 

The Georgia Partnership for Excellence in Education reported that between fall of 2019 and fall of 2021 enrollment at public schools in Georgia dropped nearly 1.5 percent, compared to private schools that rose in enrollment by over 1.6 percent and homeschooling which rose by over 17 percent. 

Population projection for Newton County shows consistent increase, projecting a 10.66 percent rise by 2023. However, there has been a decline in birth rates in the county, going from 53.1 percent in 2003 to 40.1 percent in 2013 and 34.6 percent in 2023. 

This declining birth rate is a national problem, and according to Bloomberg, U.S births in 2023 fell to the lowest in more than 40 years. Nationally, there is a projection for enrollment to decrease by 4 percent in 2030. 

In Newton County, the share of the population that is 0 to 4 has decreased from 7.5 percent in 2010 to 6 percent in 2022. The population that is 5 to 19 has also decreased from 24.4 percent in 2010 to 22.2 percent in 2022.  

Due to the decline in enrollment, currently, no school in the district has reached its maximum student capacity. By grade level, the current elementary enrollment is 8,591 students and the capacity is 11,036, middle school enrollment is at 4,036 with a capacity of 4,844 and highschool enrollment is at 6,053 with a capacity of 6,750. 

The projected enrollment from 2025 to 2031 is estimated to not go past capacity. Student enrollment is to stay consistently in the 18,000 range with capacity at 22,630. 

Vice-chair Shakila Henderson-Baker said that this is important information for the public to hear, because parents have been concerned about schools being full. 

“We hear ‘schools are full,’ ‘schools are packed,’ but they don’t exceed capacity,” Henderson-Baker said. “There are still schools that have room for growth and that actually can take students.”